Alyeska Is Underwater. None of the Thesis-Breakers Have Hit

Q1 burn was $23.3 million. The headline loss was non-cash. Three of seven kill criteria are testable today; none have been met. Four are pending

Today's tape did three things at once. The S-1 resale registration for the April 29 PIPE went effective at the close of the prior trading session. Q1 earnings dropped before the open. The defense-aviation peer cohort ran green. MRLN is down +10%.

The peer tape ruled out sector rotation. The drawdown was company-specific. The question is which fact the market was actually selling.

Three candidates: the GAAP loss line, the resale registration becoming effective, or the founder-tier subscribers exiting the position in the chat in real time. All three got priced together. The first two are mechanically misread by the tape. The third is the signal I have to take seriously, and it gets its own section below.

Let's go.