Blue Moon Metals, Part 2: Nussir is funded, Springer is next, and the scenario tree just shifted
Hartree spent C$9.06 a share to hold its percentage, Nussir just cleared FID, and the 8.3x expected value math now has fewer moving parts than it did two weeks ago
Hartree Partners paid C$9.06 per share on April 22-24, 2026 to top up its position in Blue Moon Metals. That is a 15% premium to where the stock was trading. Hartree did not have to do this. They exercised pre-emptive rights under their March 2025 Investor Rights Agreement, spending approximately C$4.8M to acquire 526,617 additional shares, specifically to maintain their ownership percentage ahead of the C$163M bought deal closing on May 6, 2026. When a project-finance specialist with a first-ranking precious metals stream on your flagship asset voluntarily pays a 15% premium to stay in, that is not noise. That is a signal.
Blue Moon Metals (Nasdaq: BMM, TSXV: MOON) is at $7.18 as of this morning, May 5, 2026. The scenario tree from Part 1 stands: bear $5.00 at 10% probability, base $36.00 at 45%, bull $72.00 at 30%, moonshot $144.00 at 15%. Probability-weighted expected value: $59.90. That is 8.3x from here.
Part 2 is not a recap. Part 1 established the framework. This piece goes deeper on the mechanics: the Nussir financing waterfall, the Springer APT unit economics, the Apex germanium-gallium dollar content, the cap-table dilution math, the analyst ladder, the NAV reconciliation, and the bear arguments that keep coming up in the comments. Every number below has a source. Every claim is load-bearing.
