So you’d recommend it now at 6 again? I don’t know when you first recommended it, I know you were promoting it all the way even when it was at 12 as a stock that you believe is worth 10x. So I bought it at 12. Regardless, do you see upside soon?
You're right that I was constructive on Merlin at 12, not just at 6. I laid out a multi-year, high-upside case and you bought into it. The drawdown to 6 is real. De-SPAC names like this often sell off hard in the first months as lockups roll off and early holders rotate out. I am not going to pretend I can call the bottom.
What I can tell you is what would keep me in versus change my mind. Still intact: the GE Aerospace Autonomy Core partnership, the KC-135 program with the Air Force, and the push toward jet and defense-class autonomy. What would make me wrong: certification slipping, cash burn forcing dilution, or those programs stalling.
On "upside soon," I won't give you a timing answer, because nobody honestly can. This is early and volatile. If a 50 percent drawdown is keeping you up at night, that usually means the position is bigger than your risk tolerance, and trimming to a size you can actually hold is a legitimate move.
One thing I mean sincerely: I am not a financial advisor, this is not personalized advice, and I own the stock myself, so I am biased. Size it to your own conviction, not mine. I'm happy to send the latest full update so you can re-read the case and decide for yourself.
Holy moly. Talk about using alternative data to verify your thesis. This is Richard Feynman at its finest!
Kevin, im blushing now. Wait until you get access today :)
Impressive work, thank you for sharing
I bought Merlin when you recommended it at 12 dollars and now it’s down to 6. Can you reassure me to hold onto it?
I recommended it at 6……?
So you’d recommend it now at 6 again? I don’t know when you first recommended it, I know you were promoting it all the way even when it was at 12 as a stock that you believe is worth 10x. So I bought it at 12. Regardless, do you see upside soon?
You're right that I was constructive on Merlin at 12, not just at 6. I laid out a multi-year, high-upside case and you bought into it. The drawdown to 6 is real. De-SPAC names like this often sell off hard in the first months as lockups roll off and early holders rotate out. I am not going to pretend I can call the bottom.
What I can tell you is what would keep me in versus change my mind. Still intact: the GE Aerospace Autonomy Core partnership, the KC-135 program with the Air Force, and the push toward jet and defense-class autonomy. What would make me wrong: certification slipping, cash burn forcing dilution, or those programs stalling.
On "upside soon," I won't give you a timing answer, because nobody honestly can. This is early and volatile. If a 50 percent drawdown is keeping you up at night, that usually means the position is bigger than your risk tolerance, and trimming to a size you can actually hold is a legitimate move.
One thing I mean sincerely: I am not a financial advisor, this is not personalized advice, and I own the stock myself, so I am biased. Size it to your own conviction, not mine. I'm happy to send the latest full update so you can re-read the case and decide for yourself.