Why every glass-substrate AI package will run on LPKF’s LIDE process, and why the Street is mispricing a $300M company sitting on top of a $50B+ equipment opportunity.
Incredible write-up. And LPKF might have the potential runway that is described. But backlog levels fell. And guidance for 2026 is lower in revenue than 2025. So do we have information from primary sources that underwrites this potential? I added it to my watchlist.
@Kevin spot on-the solar drag hit the backlog hard. But the primary sources (FY25 filings & Q4 call) say that: LPKF is quietly scaling from LIDE-only ($3.5M ASP) to a full 4-tool glass stack ($13M ASP), plus CEO Fiedler confirmed an exclusive >2yr CPO dev with a "large US semi" (read: Intel). The real runway is the hardware transition. Otherwise, appreciate your feedback and compliments, would be great if you shared my post! Thanks!
This is a great post and potentially a great company. I think the quality of the current management would also require an assessment, without the right mindset and skills it would be almost impossible to achieve the foreseen growth.
Great write up, sad I didn't read it right after it was released so my cost basis is closer to €15. Did you look at price action today? We are following a linear line but that sell off down from 18 to 15.25 has me worried we have hit a local top. Will add more if it pulls back a bit.
The biggest risk for this investment thesis is glass substrate itself. [1] glass substrate not being adopted at all [2] delay in qualification from end customers (big-tech, chip makers) and much slower adoption of glass substrate
people always overestimate the 'dire technical needs for using these new tech' but underestimate the on-going improvements in the current technology. The mainstream ABF substrates are 5um, meaning it will be fine for at least 2~3 years and through improvement we might not even need glass substrates
people also underestimate the supply chain dynamics part of this. much of advanced packaging tech road map is driven by TSMC and TW OSATS. they don't seem care about this tech. they are all going for cowos, foplp. there is no fully managed supply chain for big-tech customers to rely on.
it is very hard for investors to gauge whether big tech customers want to stick to 'affordable, fully managed supply chain, yet slightly inferior tech' or 'improved tech but expensive and supply chain not yet well ramped up'
Incredible write-up. And LPKF might have the potential runway that is described. But backlog levels fell. And guidance for 2026 is lower in revenue than 2025. So do we have information from primary sources that underwrites this potential? I added it to my watchlist.
@Kevin spot on-the solar drag hit the backlog hard. But the primary sources (FY25 filings & Q4 call) say that: LPKF is quietly scaling from LIDE-only ($3.5M ASP) to a full 4-tool glass stack ($13M ASP), plus CEO Fiedler confirmed an exclusive >2yr CPO dev with a "large US semi" (read: Intel). The real runway is the hardware transition. Otherwise, appreciate your feedback and compliments, would be great if you shared my post! Thanks!
Interested in this as well.
You made me buy this
Hell yes.
This is a great post and potentially a great company. I think the quality of the current management would also require an assessment, without the right mindset and skills it would be almost impossible to achieve the foreseen growth.
Great write up, sad I didn't read it right after it was released so my cost basis is closer to €15. Did you look at price action today? We are following a linear line but that sell off down from 18 to 15.25 has me worried we have hit a local top. Will add more if it pulls back a bit.
The biggest risk for this investment thesis is glass substrate itself. [1] glass substrate not being adopted at all [2] delay in qualification from end customers (big-tech, chip makers) and much slower adoption of glass substrate
people always overestimate the 'dire technical needs for using these new tech' but underestimate the on-going improvements in the current technology. The mainstream ABF substrates are 5um, meaning it will be fine for at least 2~3 years and through improvement we might not even need glass substrates
people also underestimate the supply chain dynamics part of this. much of advanced packaging tech road map is driven by TSMC and TW OSATS. they don't seem care about this tech. they are all going for cowos, foplp. there is no fully managed supply chain for big-tech customers to rely on.
it is very hard for investors to gauge whether big tech customers want to stick to 'affordable, fully managed supply chain, yet slightly inferior tech' or 'improved tech but expensive and supply chain not yet well ramped up'
Check my recent repost. Should address this.