$MRLN Part 13: 6 Weeks of News

The 10-Q landed this morning and settled the dilution question I have been arguing about since June. The answer is that the anti-dilution trigger went off in May.

Merlin landed an autonomous Caravan at Oshkosh, closed the AI certification issue paper at a regulator, cleared SOI 3, signed IAI, missed on revenue, and printed $3.27. Then the 10-Q showed me the anti-dilution ratchet fired in May and I never noticed. Everything since Part 12, in order.

Not investment advice. For educational purposes only. Do your own work.

Part 12 published on June 30 and ended with a promise. I wrote that Part 13 would mark the September lockup, the October preferred reset, and the second-quarter print as they resolved.

Six weeks later, here is the honest state of it. The company put more verifiable proof on the board in this window than in any comparable stretch since I started covering it. The stock printed an all-time low of $3.27 inside the same window. And on the morning of August 14 the 10-Q landed and told me that a piece of the capital structure I have been writing about for two months had already changed in May, in a way nobody covering this name reported.

I am going to do this chronologically, because the chronology is the argument. If you compress six weeks into a summary you lose the thing that actually matters, which is that every single piece of news in this window was either neutral or good, and the price went down anyway, and then the filing that arrived last told me the dilution was smaller than I had published.

Let me start with the tape, because it is the objection.