The Glass Monopoly: The Complete Series
Two parts. The only production-scale LIDE process on Earth for glass substrate TGVs and CPO waveguides.
The complete LPKF thesis.
LPKF Laser & Electronics (LPKFF) is a €330M German capital equipment company that owns the only production-scale LIDE process for glass substrate TGV drilling and CPO waveguide structuring — the chokepoint of the next AI packaging generation. Priced at an industrial discount. This page tracks every post, in order.
Last updated: May 17th, 2026
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CORE THESIS
Part 1 — $LPKF: 100x Hiding in a 50-Year-Old German Laser Shop
The setup. Why every glass-substrate AI package will run on LIDE. The $50B TAM the Street hasn’t priced.
Part 2 — LPKFF Has 18 Months Before the Market Figures This Out
Four scenarios, two discount rates, the half-roadmap floor, CPO port math, April 30 earnings primer.
Part 3 — There Is an Activist Already in the Boardroom
The post-mortem and the re-anchor. The April 30 print read segment by segment, Solar down 88 percent while the LIDE segment turned profitable. The first capacity-expansion order that landed in Q1. The four-tool roadmap the company confirmed in its own words. The activist holding nearly 10 percent who already sits on the supervisory board. The honest correction on the Intel claim.
Part 4 - The Standoff Went to a Vote, Management Won, and the Bull Model Says Seventy Euros
A board pivot, an investor forum, and the first production order, with the shareholder standoff that went to a vote and a bull model at seventy euros.
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ONGOING COVERAGE
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PORTFOLIO UPDATES MENTIONING LPKF
April 16, 2026 — Portfolio Update
May 14, 2026 — Portfolio Update
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Read Part 1 first if you’re new.
Read the most recent ongoing coverage post if you’re caught up.