MRLN: The Complete Thesis
Ten parts. One position. Start here.
The complete Merlin Labs thesis.
Merlin Labs (MRLN) is a de-SPAC defense autonomy company building the certified flight control layer for Collaborative Combat Aircraft. It’s my largest position. This page tracks every post, in order.
Last updated: May 28
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CORE THESIS
Part 1 — 54x Upside Hiding in a De-SPAC
The setup. Float, short interest, borrow rates, lockup. Why nobody’s looking.
Part 2 — Stress-Tested and Standing
Financials, valuation, preferred shares, downside cases.
TAM, contracts, DoD autonomy spend, the CRO hire.
Part 4 — The Board, the Preferred Supernova
Governance, lockup math, institutional catalysts, the twelve-month trigger map.
Part 5 — The First International Geography
RIG teaming agreement, UAE TAM, the international template, updated probability-weighted upside.
Part 6 — Alyeska Sat on Both Sides of the Trade
The $80M PIPE structure. Section 7(c) ratchet math, the $5.00 floor correction to Part 4, September 16 convergence, Saronic comp arbitrage.
Part 7 - MRLN’s $105M Ceiling Is Not the Revenue, It Is the Authorization
Response to bear case post
Part 8 - Alyeska Is Underwater. None of the Thesis-Breakers Have Hit
Post Earnings. Conviction is king.
Part 9 - I Tracked Every Merlin Aircraft for 180 Days
Six months of public ADS-B flight data. Three certification testbeds, two countries, one synchronized spring peak. The USAF KC-135 testbed identified.
25 sections, 12 appendices, 33 verified tables. Capital structure, board composition, federal pipeline, OEM matrix, scenario valuations, risk register. 111 days to the September 16 lockup.
Part 11 - The Gate Cleared and the Tape Forgot
The C-130J cleared Critical Design Review and the tape did nothing. The gate that turns a program into procurement, and the mispricing it left behind.
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ONGOING COVERAGE AS AVAILABLE.
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PORTFOLIO UPDATES MENTIONING MRLN
April 16, 2026 — Portfolio Update
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Read Part 1 first if you’re new.
Read the most recent ongoing coverage post if you’re caught up.