MRLN: The Complete Thesis

Ten parts. One position. Start here.

The complete Merlin Labs thesis.

Merlin Labs (MRLN) is a de-SPAC defense autonomy company building the certified flight control layer for Collaborative Combat Aircraft. It’s my largest position. This page tracks every post, in order.

Last updated: May 28

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CORE THESIS

Part 1 — 54x Upside Hiding in a De-SPAC

The setup. Float, short interest, borrow rates, lockup. Why nobody’s looking.

Part 2 — Stress-Tested and Standing

Financials, valuation, preferred shares, downside cases.

Part 3 — The DAWG, the $54.6B

TAM, contracts, DoD autonomy spend, the CRO hire.

Part 4 — The Board, the Preferred Supernova

Governance, lockup math, institutional catalysts, the twelve-month trigger map.

Part 5 — The First International Geography

RIG teaming agreement, UAE TAM, the international template, updated probability-weighted upside.

Part 6 — Alyeska Sat on Both Sides of the Trade

The $80M PIPE structure. Section 7(c) ratchet math, the $5.00 floor correction to Part 4, September 16 convergence, Saronic comp arbitrage.

Part 7 - MRLN’s $105M Ceiling Is Not the Revenue, It Is the Authorization

Response to bear case post

Part 8 - Alyeska Is Underwater. None of the Thesis-Breakers Have Hit

Post Earnings. Conviction is king.

Part 9 - I Tracked Every Merlin Aircraft for 180 Days

Six months of public ADS-B flight data. Three certification testbeds, two countries, one synchronized spring peak. The USAF KC-135 testbed identified.

Merlin Intelligence — Live OSINT Tool

The live flight-tracking and OSINT dashboard built from the 180-day reconstruction.

Merlin World — The Interactive Build

An interactive map of every Merlin airframe, site and program, built to be explored.

Part 10 - The Deep Update

25 sections, 12 appendices, 33 verified tables. Capital structure, board composition, federal pipeline, OEM matrix, scenario valuations, risk register. 111 days to the September 16 lockup.

Part 11 - The Gate Cleared and the Tape Forgot

The C-130J cleared Critical Design Review and the tape did nothing. The gate that turns a program into procurement, and the mispricing it left behind.

Part 12 - The Discount Went Extreme While The Demand Started Becoming Law

The stock fell to the cash-floor bear case while the C-130J design review cleared and the FAA moved to mandate the very traffic layer Merlin's autonomy already fuses.

The Tape Says $3.88. The Calendar Says August.

The catalyst calendar against a tape that had stopped believing in it.

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ONGOING COVERAGE AS AVAILABLE.

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PORTFOLIO UPDATES MENTIONING MRLN

April 16, 2026 — Portfolio Update

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Read Part 1 first if you’re new.

Read the most recent ongoing coverage post if you’re caught up.